Making Sense in Uncertainty

What Happened on the Way to the Spring Market?

With trajectory established by the robust sales, buttressed by interest and unemployment rates at or near historic lows, real estate pros were anticipating an April full of motivated buyers checking out newly listed homes. Instead, coronavirus quarantines have brought listings, contracts and closings toward a state of delay - to May, or maybe July, or later? According to a new Gallup poll, 71% of Americans plan to "wait and see" before resuming their pre-pandemic lifestyle.

What happens in quarantine? "Going shopping" means choosing from pictures posted by online merchants and waiting for delivery. "Eating out" means reviewing online menus and waiting for delivery. "Going to the movies" means making a selection on a video screen to stream at home. Interest rates stay low, but unemployment skyrockets among workers whose jobs cannot be done through a home computer.

Are these changes temporary or do they represent a shift in our lifestyles that influence real estate choices? Don't seek answers in our current state of uncertainty. As the Marx Brothers photo clip on the PREP website home page advises, now is a time to Look - Feel - Question, repeatedly, considering questions like:

• How long will it take for people to feel comfortable at closer proximity in restaurants and theatres, visiting retail stores or traveling longer distances for recreational getaways - and how many such venues will survive to that future? If "staying in" becomes a new routine, how will homes be updated to accommodate?
• Now that home telework is proven viable, how many people want that option? If commuting is less frequent, do people revalue the benefit of proximity to work centers or the importance of private office space?
• What portion of the 16+ million now unemployed return to their old jobs, and how long will it take for the remainder to find new employment?
• How important is "community" and "neighborhood"?

The pandemic experience will bring change. As a "new normal" emerges, Confirm the conclusions you draw from months of observing and questioning, discarding the ones that prove temporary.